The Saudi-U.S. alliance is vital for bringing peace to the Middle East, yet it is not enough to achieve tangible results. Introducing stability into the region requires the engagement of like-minded actors. As such, with rapprochement with Iran and Israel, the Gulf states could enhance their efforts in resolving conflicts and advancing regional dialogue.
Over recent months, there have been multiple efforts undertaken by regional and international stakeholders to facilitate peace in the Middle East. The pursuit of peace, however, entails a multifaced and complex approach. Despite the involvement of multiple parties in mediation and calls to cease the atrocities in the Gaza Strip, tangible progress has yet to be achieved. Although the Palestinian Cause requires an immediate solution, we should not overlook the complexity of other regional disputes and conflicts rooted in religious division, ideology, or a struggle for regional dominance in political and economic aspects. The question of who will contribute to anticipated stability and peace remains a source of uncertainty for the international community.
The outcomes often appear ambiguous when assessing the efforts and policies enforced by regional actors and great powers such as the United States. For instance, Saudi Arabia, one of the most important US allies, is a state with a significant influence, particularly in economic, religious, and political terms. However, during the Arab-Islamic summit hosted in Saudi Arabia in November 2023, despite a will to bring peace to the war in Gaza, the monarchy and the participants called for an end to the conflict to no avail. Differing expectation and perceptions of threats by Arab states makes reaching a consensus barely impossible. Also, it is no secret that with the support of the United States, the Kingdom has attempted to sign a normalization agreement with Israel, provided that the Palestinian cause would be resolved first.
As the prospects for ending the war are receding, so does the normalization process between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Biden’s administration intended to connect the normalization efforts with the “Strategic Alliance Agreement,” aiming to enhance bilateral ties with Saudi Arabia and, therefore, provide security guarantees to the state. Despite past obstacles and tensions between Riyadh and Washington, their relationship has endured. Consequently, it is important to examine Saudi-U.S. relations within recent years and evaluate their impact on Middle Eastern stability, including ongoing shifts in the regional order.
Saudi-U.S. Relations Over the Years
In the 20th century, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia established the foundations of their relations through the so-called security-for-oil policy. The attempt of Soviet geopolitical expansion in the Middle East and the occurrence of wars led to the increased engagement of the United States with several other states. Saudi Arabia and Iran under Shah’s Pahlavi rule were among them, and together, they pursued a twin-pillar policy, enabling Washington to expand its sphere of influence into the Gulf. However, the strategy did not last long: in 1979, the Islamic Revolution in Iran shifted the country’s stance towards the West, posing a new challenge for the U.S. and Arab states in maintaining leverage in the region. Nevertheless, the Gulf War (1990-1991) proved Washington’s outstanding capabilities and enhanced its standing in the Middle East in the new emerging world order.
In the 21st century, the Middle Eastern states had to face new challenges, especially in the aftermath of the 2001 terrorist attacks in the U.S. and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. A significant challenge also emerged when the United States announced the “Pivot to Asia” policy during Barack Obama’s administration. The shift and instability in the United States’ foreign policy towards the Middle East caused uncertainty in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, eventually invoking further diversification of partnerships, such as the one with China. The nuclear agreement concluded in 2015 in the P5+1 format (Iran, China, the United States, Russia, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the European Union) made it possible to adopt a new approach towards Iran, i.e., lifting the international sanctions and gradual integration with the region. For the Gulf states, however, the main concern was Iran’s potential rise and destabilizing activity through the proxy groups supported by Teheran. What was even more striking for the Arab allies were the words of Barack Obama and his stance on possible cooperation with Iran: The competition between the Saudis and the Iranians […] requires us to say to our friends, as well as to the Iranians, that they need to find an effective way to share the neighborhood and institute some sort of cold peace.
The presidency of Donald Trump came as a relief for the Arab states. Saudi Arabia was the first state to be visited by the newly elected president. According to Al Jazeera, Trump saw the visit as an opportunity to strengthen ties with the ally after the turbulent period. The stability did not last long since the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear agreement and imposed a “maximum pressure” policy against Iran, causing the authorities in Teheran to use retaliatory means and continue working on a nuclear program. Even if Saudi-U.S. relations were to be improved during Trump’s presidency, the U.S. was not keen to help in the situation of attacks on the Kingdom’s soil. This highlighted the uncertainty of the U.S. policy among the Gulf states, leading to a change in national strategies. Among the results was the rapprochement with regional former opponents and rivals such as Turkey, Syria, Israel, and eventually, Iran.
From a “Pariah” State to Anticipated Security Upgrades
In light of the upcoming presidential elections in the United States, we should take a closer look into Joe Biden’s current term in office. The beginning of Biden’s term was not conducive to maintaining good relations with the Saudis. As the President introduced the agenda based on the support of human rights that later appeared in the official National Security Strategy (2022), he announced changes in approach towards the Kingdom. During the presidential campaign, Joe Biden referred to the death of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi opponent of the monarchy, stating that he would hold the Kingdom accountable and consequently make it a “pariah” state. However, the relationship endured the tensions despite the initially announced consequences, and in the end, no specific actions were taken. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasizedRiyadh’s importance of being a crucial partner to the United States, notably in dealing with regional threats, and expressed hope for the advancement of the peacemaking process between Israel and the Arab states. The visit paid by President Biden to Saudi Arabia in July 2022 confirmed the continuation of the warming relations process, which was also met with criticism.
Security plays a prominent role in the Saudi-U.S. relationship. The value of concluded military agreements amounted to over $100 billion (2009-2020), making Saudi Arabia the largest customer and essential partner of the U.S. in terms of security. Also, the Kingdom ranks as the second largest global arms importer, following India.
Increasing attention has been drawn to the defense pact negotiations between the parties. According to Reuters, the Kingdom expects the United States to receive security guarantees, deliver advanced military equipment such as F-35 fighter jets, share new technologies (AI), and receive assistance in developing the Saudi nuclear program for energy purposes. In exchange, cooperation with China would be limited in selected fields.
The deal has a broader meaning for the region, too. It is a part of the Saudi-Israeli rapprochement process, which is contingent on resolving the Palestinian cause. Normalization of bilateral relations and, as a consequence, recognizing Israel requires Prime Minister Netanyahu to make concessions in ceasing the war in Gaza and pursue the two-state solution. Given that Netanyahu has been constantly rejecting international calls to stop the hostilities in the Gaza Strip and therefore reducing the chances of any future agreement, Riyadh considered an alternative that only refers to U.S.-Saudi Arabia relations and separates Israel from the agreement.
The Future Outlook
As the analysis has shown, despite the uncertainty and occurring instability, Saudi-U.S. ties have stood the test of time. The United States’ approach towards the Kingdom depends on a particular administration’s strategy, but this is not the only variable we should consider. In today’s world, regional order in the Middle East has undergone unprecedented changes, such as the Arab-Israeli normalization and Iran’s rapprochement with the Arab states (mainly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates), making simultaneously the regional alliances more complex. Iran might not be perceived as a significant threat but rather a challenge in terms of security. Although the peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia now seems impossible to reach, managing the relationship with Iran and Israel, long-term adversaries, will require a specific approach from Saudi diplomacy not to trigger ongoing disputes and conflicts. From today’s perspective, as long as the balance between Iran and the Arab states is maintained, the situation should not change for the worse.
The Middle East needs either a state or coalition of states capable of maintaining security and leading regional adversaries toward peace. However, they cannot act alone – external help is necessary, but not to the extent that it would interfere with the domestic policies of the local states. The United States plays the role of a guide that sets a path that other actors might follow. As the only external security provider in the region, it gives Washington the most space to maneuver. In consequence, the Arab states consider security to be of the utmost importance. Thus, they chose the United States as the key partner with which to cooperate. One should remember that other great powers, such as China, offer alternative paths that the U.S. considers challenging, and in a long-term perspective, the perception of the relationship with China might change as well. It is worth noting that the use of soft power in foreign policy, rather than hard power, has recently gained greater recognition in the strategies of the Arab states.
Saudi Arabia is one of the leading states in the region as it advances in terms of economy and military. However, acting alone with the United States would cause additional tensions in the region. Other actors, such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, follow a similar, ambitious path, vying for a pivotal role in the regional order. Leading the Middle East toward stability and averting further inter-state rivalry requires consensus and the involvement of more states that together would be capable of maintaining the anticipated balance.
Concluding the defense pact between the United States and Saudi Arabia would be a demanding task. Israel is far from accepting either the two-state solution or the ceasefire. Therefore, it makes reaching the deal with the Kingdom unfeasible, too. Any move toward the normalization agreement without resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict first would cause grave consequences for the Middle East. Given that Iran and Israel are both making progress in their relationships with the Gulf, perhaps it is time for the Arab states to consider initiating dialogue and enhance their efforts to bring peace and stability into the region.
Picture source: MrRendonMC, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons; available at https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/World_Flag_Map_%22Saudi_Arabia%22.png
