The topic of migration has become a political hot potato in recent years, not only in Europe but also in North African countries, including Tunisia, where the changing migration landscape has led to racial tensions targeting sub-Saharan migrants.
Tunisia: A Country of Origin
Regarding migration, Tunisia, just like Morocco and Algeria, is traditionally considered a country of origin. The Tunisian state has always supported its own citizens’ search for employment in Western and Southern Europe as a means to mitigate high rates of domestic unemployment and existing social and economic tensions. However, the adoption of the Schengen Agreement has significantly complicated the entrance and employment of the citizens of North African countries in the EU. This change triggered the emergence of the first clandestine routes, formed in Tunisia and Libya in close cooperation with the Italian mafia, along which North African and sub-Saharan migrants were also present.
As Italian concerns began to grow over irregular migration coming from Tunisia, President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali (1987–2011) was eager to cooperate in exchange for economic and financial aid, which also contributed to the survival of his regime.
Following his ousting at the end of the „Jasmine Revolution” that led to the changing political landscape of Tunisia, several internal and external factors put brakes on Tunisia’s migration reform, making migration management between the North African state and the European Union problematic and cumbersome. As the Europe-bound migration from Tunisia, except for a few short periods during the 2010s, did not reach considerable volume until the COVID-19 pandemic, migration management was neither considered to be a hot topic in Tunisia nor a priority for the European Union.
However, things have drastically changed since then.
Kais Saied’s Ascent into Power and His Power Grab
Kais Saied, a political outsider without a detailed program, gained a landslide victory in the October 2019 presidential elections under the banner „the people want.” His populist rhetoric, which revolved around ending Tunisia’s economic and political malaise, capitalized on the pervasive distrust and widespread political estrangement of the post-2011 political elites, which sentiment was shared by ever-widening fractions of society.
The initial burst of optimism following Zine el-Abidine ben Ali’s ousting in January 2011 was quickly replaced by mass disillusionment, as the cross-ideological coalitions in charge of leading Tunisia were incapable of addressing the growing socio-economic tensions and grievances.
However, the „man of the people” could not deliver because the government remained paralyzed as a result of the political elite being at loggerheads with each other, and Tunisia was hit hard by the social and economic implications of COVID-19. The pandemic had negatively affected the livelihood of Tunisians, pushing many into poverty. To overcome this stagnation, Saied overhauled the entire political system by creating a „stronger presidency” that was meant to create stability, break the political deadlock, and put the lagging economy back on track.
His power grab that started in 2021 involved the suspension and then the dissolution of the parliament, while the 2022 referendum on the new constitution gave him exceptional powers by enabling him to rule the country by issuing presidential decrees. According to many Tunisian politicians and international experts, Saied’s strong political leadership has ended Tunisia’s struggling transition to democracy and has put a strain on its relationship with important regional and international players.
Tunisia Evolving into a Key Transit Hub for Migrants
Economic and social problems, incited by Tunisia’s institutional weakness, remained unresolved, manifesting in the growing volume of irregular migration to Europe. The year 2022 saw a new record in the number of irregular migrants arriving at the Italian shores from Tunisia as 32,371 people arrived, a significant rise from the previous record of 27,982 in 2011, after the fall of Ben Ali’s regime. The increasing flow of clandestine migration can also be seen in the growing number of migrants intercepted at sea and in the country’s littoral areas: in 2022, Tunisian security and defense forces captured between 29,723 and 38,713 irregular migrants, marking a remarkable increase from the 2021 data (23,328 interceptions).
The increasing intensity of Europe-bound irregular migration from Tunisia continued in 2023, too. According to UNHCR data, 157,651 refugees and migrants arrived in Italy by sea, of whom 62% (97,667 people) departed from Tunisian soil, over three times more than in the previous year. The portion of those who reached Italy irregularly from Libya was only 33%, meaning that Tunisia surpassed Libya as the primary departure point towards Italy via the Central Mediterranean route.
Another novelty of 2023 was the changing composition of irregular migrant groups departing from Tunisia. Out of the nearly 100,000 people, almost 80,000 were sub-Saharans, which means Tunisians accounted only for a minority. Thus Tunisia, which used to be a country of origin, evolved into a transit country for migrants. This phenomenon can be traced back to a wide range of factors.
Migration Comes in the Forefront of Public and Political Discourse
Historically, clandestine migration has been a low-salience issue in the Maghreb. However, the serious political, economic, and social challenges Tunisia is still facing have led to the intensifying politicization and securitization of migration.
In February 2023, President Saied delivered a speech during a National Security Council meeting on irregular migration and the growing number of sub-Saharans among migrants embarking from Tunisian territory, saying, “There is a criminal plan to change the composition of the demographic landscape in Tunisia, and some individuals have received large sums of money to give residence to sub-Saharan migrants.” The speech, inspired by the narrative of the tiny anti-migration group called Tunisian National Party, which was established in 2018 and whose agenda quickly gained popularity, marked the beginning of an even stricter approach towards irregular migrants, compared to that of Ben Ali. Kais Saied’s rhetoric also set off a chain of events that included the eviction of foreign migrants from their houses, their dismissal from jobs, and threats of violence and arrest.
Moreover, news have also extensively covered the controversial practice of Tunisian authorities forcibly deporting thousands of irregular, mostly sub-Saharan migrants to the borders with Libya and Algeria. In many cases, collective expulsions that have become a systematic part of domestic migration management, lead to serious humanitarian violations. Saied has always denied the existence of the inhumane treatment of irregular migrants and has vehemently attacked those domestic and international leaders and organizations who have spoken up on the matter. Just like Saied’s power grab, this topic has also escalated tensions between Tunisia and the international community.
The Migration Deal: Much Hope but Little Delivery
As a direct result of the increasing number of migrant arrivals from Tunisia and despite the worrisome news about how Tunisian authorities treat sub-Saharan migrants, Italy pushed for the signing of the „Memorandum of Understanding on a Strategic and Global Partnership”, in which migration management cooperation between the European Union and Tunisia is also a key element. To secure a portion of its external borders, the EU (and the IMF) have provided financial and economic assistance (and loans) to Tunisia worth €1 billion.
Tunisian and other North African presidents have always firmly rejected the idea of establishing regional disembarkation platforms on national soil as it is regarded as an offense to Tunisia’s sovereignty and an injection of potential instability into its territory. Obviously, this decision is also fueled by domestic discontent in connection with clandestine migration and the growing presence of sub-Saharans in the country. Data hugely vary regarding their precise number as estimates present numbers anywhere between 10,000 and 75,000. Thus, and despite the worrisome news about their rapidly worsening condition, the most recent migration deal stuck in the summer of 2023 does not include this much sought-after option.
Just like in the European Union, Tunisians also heavily criticize the cash-for-migration-curb framework. Many Tunisians are convinced that the deal is not in their interest as the country does not gain much with further externalization of the EU borders – on the contrary, it only puts a significant burden on Tunisia. Their reasoning is that the agreement does not offer substantial help to secure the country’s land borders, so sub-Saharan migrants will continue to transit through Tunisia.
Migration Realpolitik: President Saied’s Saving Grace?
Migration deals contain the potential for extortion, too. North African countries, including Tunisia, might take advantage of their strategic geographical position to put even more pressure on the European Union and especially on its Mediterranean member states, which have been under considerable migratory pressure since 2015.
The fight against clandestine migration and the use of migrants can easily be a bargaining chip for Tunisia: the potential for confrontation, in this case, gives the region an opportunity to negotiate even more beneficial development, economic, and financial agreements with the EU and member states.
For President Saied, Tunisia’s favorable bargaining position might also allow him to break out of his political isolation. Tunisia, compared to its neighbors, is a relatively small and marginal country when it comes to political dynamics and economy. Saied’s power grab, coupled with his anti-migrant rhetoric and conspiracy theories, further alienated Tunisia from its close allies, key international leaders, and investors.
However, migration realpolitik might be his saving grace, as soaring arrival numbers in Italy have aggravated panic in Europe, where migration has become an increasingly controversial topic, ultimately pushing EU leaders to retain ties. This, in practice, means that diplomatic ties and financial aid would be extended to Saied, which could be exploited to call critical voices in both the domestic and international arena regarding his perceived authoritarian slide and accusations of the fast-deteriorating human rights situation in question.
Italy, having experienced a massive influx of migrants and thus directly interested in curbing the migration pressure from Tunisia, could be the number one engine in forging closer cooperation with the North African country.
