Syria has been embroiled in a protracted and devastating conflict since 2011, which has seen the involvement of multiple regional and international actors. Among these, Iran’s role has been particularly significant and multifaceted.
The safety and stability of Syria have been profoundly influenced by Iran’s engagement, both directly through its military and political support to the Assad regime and indirectly through the flow of Iranian weapons into and out of the country. This article delves into the complexities of Iran’s involvement in Syria, examining how it impacts the region’s safety and the broader geopolitical implications.
Iran’s Strategic Interests in Syria
Iran’s engagement in Syria is driven by a combination of strategic, religious, and geopolitical interests. Syria, under President Bashar al-Assad, has been a longstanding ally of Iran, providing a crucial link in the so-called “Axis of Resistance” against Israel and Western influence in the Middle East. This alliance is rooted in the shared Shia Islamic faith, with Syria’s ruling Alawite minority being an offshoot of Shia Islam, and a mutual opposition to Sunni-dominated regimes in the region.
The preservation of the Assad regime is paramount for Iran, as it ensures the continuity of this strategic partnership. Iran’s involvement in Syria serves to maintain its influence in the Levant, safeguard its logistical routes to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and counterbalance Saudi and Western interests in the region. Thus, Iran’s strategic interests in Syria are closely tied to its broader regional ambitions and security concerns.
Military and Political Support
Iran’s support for the Assad regime has been substantial and multifaceted. On the military front, Iran has provided direct support through the deployment of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and affiliated militias, including the Quds Force, which plays a pivotal role in Iran’s extraterritorial operations. These forces have been instrumental in training and advising Syrian government troops, participating in combat operations, and establishing pro-Iranian militias composed of both Syrian and foreign fighters.
In addition to manpower, Iran has supplied significant quantities of military hardware to the Syrian regime. This includes small arms, artillery, drones, and advanced missile systems. The transfer of these weapons has bolstered the Assad regime’s capabilities, enabling it to reclaim territory and maintain its hold on power amidst a fractious and multifaceted opposition.
Politically, Iran has been a staunch supporter of Assad in international forums, providing diplomatic backing and working to undermine efforts that seek to delegitimize the Syrian government. Iran’s influence has been evident in various peace talks and negotiations, where it has consistently advocated for solutions that preserve Assad’s position and align with its own strategic interests.
The Flow of Iranian Weapons
The flow of Iranian weapons into Syria has been a critical aspect of Iran’s support for the Assad regime. These weapons not only bolster the Syrian government’s military capabilities but also have significant implications for regional security.
Into Syria
Iranian weapons have been transported into Syria through various means, including air, land, and sea routes. Airlifts have been a primary method, with flights from Iran’s Mehrabad and other airports delivering arms and supplies to Syrian airbases. Overland routes through Iraq and maritime shipments to Syrian ports have also been utilized, often involving complex logistics and evasion of international sanctions and embargoes.
For example, in 2023, it was reported that Iran had used the cover of humanitarian aid flights following the devastating earthquake in Syria to smuggle weapons into the country. This tactic involved disguising arms shipments as relief supplies, which were then transported to Syrian government forces and allied militias. Furthermore, overland routesthrough Iraq have been consistently used to ferry weapons and military equipment (in past months, notably to Hezbollah), taking advantage of the relatively porous borders and the logistical support from pro-Iranian militias operating in Iraq.
Out of Syria
The flow of Iranian weapons is not unidirectional; arms have also transited out of Syria, particularly to Hezbollah in Lebanon. This transfer has been facilitated by the geographical proximity and the established logistical routes through Syria. Hezbollah, which has been heavily involved in the Syrian conflict on the side of the Assad regime, has received advanced weaponry, including precision-guided missiles and drones, enhancing its capabilities against Israel.
This outflow of weapons has broader regional implications, contributing to the militarization of non-state actors and heightening tensions with Israel. The Israeli government has frequently targeted arms convoys and depots in Syria to prevent the transfer of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah, leading to periodic escalations and raising the risk of a wider regional conflict. For instance, Israeli officials have reported that the Aleppo International Airport has been used as a key node in the transfer of Iranian arms, prompting Israel to conduct airstrikes to disrupt these operations.
Recent Developments and Adjustments
Recent developments have seen some adjustments in Iran’s presence and strategy in Syria, driven by external pressures and internal recalibrations. Notably, there have been reports of Iran pulling back some of its officers from Syria following intensified Israeli strikes on Iranian positions and assets within the country. These strikes have aimed to curtail Iran’s military entrenchment in Syria, targeting critical infrastructure and weapon storage facilities.
Moreover, the geopolitical landscape has been further complicated by Syria’s readmission to the Arab League in 2023. This move was seen by some as a potential lever to reduce Iranian influence in Syria by re-integrating the country into the Arab world and encouraging it to distance itself from Tehran. However, such expectations might be overly optimistic. The Atlantic Council has argued that the readmission of Syria to the Arab League is unlikely to significantly diminish Iran’s presence or influence in the country. Instead, Iran’s entrenched economic and military interests in Syria are expected to persist, driven by the deep-rooted strategic ties between Tehran and Damascus.
Implications
The engagement of Iran and the flow of Iranian weapons have profound implications for the safety and stability of Syria. While Iran’s support has been pivotal in bolstering the Assad regime and its survival, it has also contributed to the protraction and intensification of the conflict.
The flow of Iranian weapons out of Syria, particularly to Hezbollah, poses significant risks to regional security. It enhances the military capabilities of non-state actors, leading to periodic escalations with Israel and raising the specter of a broader regional conflict. This arms transfer undermines efforts to stabilize the region and contributes to an ongoing cycle of violence and retribution.
Iran’s engagement in Syria also creates heightened diplomatic and geopolitical tensions, particularly with the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. The US and its allies view Iran’s actions as destabilizing and have implemented various measures, including sanctions and military strikes, to counter Iranian influence. These tensions have created a complex and contentious international environment, complicating efforts to address the Syrian crisis and achieve a negotiated settlement.
